Draft analysis, part II - First attempt to adjust for time

So in this analysis, I simply divided the total number of all-star points that a team received by the total number of service days the players had in the majors.

I still need to adjust for the points pitchers receive vs. the points position players receive - pitchers get more, on average, but they can also go negative, which position players can't.

SO without further ado:

1. Atlanta - 1.558318082

2. San Diego - 1.537646788

3. New York Yankees - 1.502774849

4. Texas - 1.489765563

5. Brooklyn - 1.448745015

6. Toronto - 1.42364716

7. Milwaukee - 1.40759943

8. Cleveland - 1.382971339

9. Detroit - 1.355191019

10. Chicago - 1.343842194

11. Pittsburgh - 1.278667761

12. Minnesota - 1.218925925

13. Seattle - 1.204448293

14. Boston - 1.012053947

15. New York Giants - 1.008791453

16. Houston - 0.909155463


One thing to consider as I try to winnow this down better is the later draft picks. Very few fourth or fifth round draft picks amount to anything, but they are often picked up by teams who are running to the bottom. So I'm thinking I should pull out the fourth and fifth round picks so that one team's attempt to finish last doesn't affect another team's score. The problem is, of course, the occasional player who does break out, like Lynn Wilson, who despite being a fourth round pick, compiled 2,383 all-star points.

#1 picks by position

One pick at every position EXCEPT right field (which gets a bonus in MVP voting!), and 13 pitchers.

C-1
1b-1
2b-1
3b-1
ss-1
lf-1
cf-1
rf-0
p-13

Draft Analysis, Part 1

This is going to take a few posts to lay everything out. I’ve made a spreadsheet of the last 20 seasons’ drafts. This is an attempt to analyze which teams have been the best at drafting players.

This is all completely unscientific and done by the seat of my pants.

This first post is straight totals for each team. This does not take into account when players were drafted (so if you drafted a future hall of famer last season, you’re still only going to have 1 season of their stats), so teams which drafted higher 20 seasons ago have an advantage. I will adjust for this in future posts.

So I’ll list the team name, then the total all-star votes for all their draftees, total at-bats, total, innings, and total service time, then the average all-star votes per draftee, the average draft pick location (The lower this number, the closer the team picks to the top on average). FInally I give a power score, which is simply the average all-star vote times the average draft location, divided by 20. Teams that draft lower on average should theoretically have better draftees, so this helps boost the teams who draft near the bottom more often. If your #16 draft pick has 4,000 all-star votes compared to 5,000 for the #1 pick, that’s actually pretty good drafting by the #16 team.

Atlanta (101 picks),

69822

72330

13584

44806

691.3 All-Star Votes per draftee

Average draft location 37.4

Power score 1292.73

Boston (106 picks),

52979

52767

16795

52348

499.8 All-Star Votes per draftee

Average draft location: 37.9

Power score: 947.121

Brooklyn (88 picks),

37056

27542

11416

25578

421.1 All-Star Votes per draftee

Average draft location: 45.9

Power score: 966.4245

Chicago (85 picks),

46462

36747

15009

34574

546.6 All-Star Votes per draftee

Average draft location: 45.4

Power score: 1243.515

Cleveland (95 picks)

47819

57479

8395

34577

503.35 All-Star votes per draftee

Average draft location: 41.9

Power score: 1054.51825

Detroit (97 picks)

62290

67356

13875

45964

642.16 All-Star votes per draftee

Average draft location: 44.1

Power score: 1415.9628

Houston (108 picks)

38410

30357

21611

42248

355.65 All-star votes per draftee

Average draft location: 37.1

Power score: 659.73075

Milwaukee (95 picks)

60272

38457

24921

42819

634.44 All-Star votes per draftee

Average draft location: 39.7

Power score: 1259.3634

Minnesota (101 picks)

46552

50896

10771

38191

460.91 All-Star votes per draftee

Average draft location: 42.2

Power score: 972.5201

New York Giants (86 picks)

27195

39431

6836

26958

316.2 All-Star votes per draftee

Average draft location: 45.72

Power score: 722.8332

New York Yankees

54157

51647

13609

36038

501.5 All-Star votes per draftee

Average draft location: 37.72

Power score: 945.829

Pittsburgh (108 picks)

54516

48347

15722

42635

504.8 All-Star votes per draftee

Average draft location: 39.22

Power score: 989.9128

San Diego (117 picks)

100170

111415

19525

65145

856.15 All-Star votes per draftee

Average draft location: 36.74

Power score: 1572.74755

Seattle (119 picks)

66771

65136

20904

55437

561.1 All-Star votes per draftee

Average draft location: 35.06

Power score: 983.6083

Texas (97 picks)

67105

40375

23737

45044

691.8 All-Star votes per draftee

Average draft location: 42.86

Power score: 1482.5274

Toronto (85 picks)

38121

47779

6240

26777

448.5 All-Star votes per draftee

Average draft location: 46.26

Power score: 1037.3805

And, for fun:

Undrafted players (411)

695

758

1389

3647

1.69 All-Star votes per player

Average draft location: 81

Power score: 6.8445

In my next post I will try to adjust for time.